Middle East gas turbine orders outpace AI data centres to secure grid reserves

Third-quarter data from Siemens Energy shows the Middle East accounted for 30% of total gas turbine orders, equivalent to approximately 4.5 gigawatts, outpacing the 20% share taken by artificial intelligence data centres. These figures come at a time when total annual global demand for gas turbines stands at around 120 gigawatts, according to Reuters data, while global manufactured capacity reached 72 gigawatts last year. That capacity was distributed across the United States at 28%, Japan at 14%, China at 12%, and Germany at 10%, alongside Saudi Arabia with a 5% share.

Securing operating reserves precedes digital expansion, as regional countries move to shield their grids from supply fluctuations and peak demand periods.In this context, Ahmad Salaymeh, Director of European Union Energy Projects at the University of Jordan, explains that power grid reliability is achieved when the reserve margin ranges between 15% and 20%, while exceeding 20% provides a higher level of operational security. This margin is not idle surplus capacity, but an immediate response capability that ensures supply stability during emergency outages or sudden demand spikes, a necessity reinforced by the fallout of war and concerns over regional maritime security and fuel flows.

Gas turbines offer operational characteristics that make them the most flexible and responsive option for the region's needs, capable of starting generation and feeding electricity into the grid within minutes, unlike conventional steam plants that require more time to heat water and generate steam. These turbines can also be built on smaller footprints directly adjacent to demand centres or gas fields, without requiring water for direct generation. Alongside standalone turbines, there is a growing shift toward combined-cycle plants that integrate gas and steam to raise fuel efficiency to around 60%.

Industrial and digital expansion calculations place electricity stability at the top of infrastructure priorities.As global electricity demand grows by 3% to 4% annually, AI data centres are exerting mounting pressure driven by intensive computing requirements and cooling systems. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Qatar are all moving to bolster their positions in the data centre sector, requiring continuous, cost-competitive power. This need mirrors developments in the US market, where xAI relied on dozens of gas turbines to secure direct power for one of its massive data centres.

We see in this landscape a clear shift that makes grid readiness a prerequisite for accommodating the demands of advanced computing and manufacturing. While expanding demand benefits gas-exporting nations and major manufacturers in the United States, Europe, and China, Gulf priorities centre on building flexible generation capacity that safeguards grid stability, ensuring that the demands of the digital surge do not become a burden on local energy reliability.