Zero financial return outside tech giants: Apollo chief economist dismantles the productivity myth of companies

Wall Street data show that the multibillion-dollar AI investments have not yet been reflected in the books of traditional companies. In an analytical memo that examined the performance of large firms, Torsten Sahlow, chief economist at asset-management firm Apollo Global Management, found that generative technology has presentedzero financial returnfor the U.S. business sector outside the circle of tech giants, confirming that profit margins and revenue per employee remain on a flat, stagnant trajectory, with no tangible evidence of operational efficiency improvement.

Sahlow built his summary by stripping out the S&P 500 index and isolating the seven mega-cap firms, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla, to focus his analysis on what he calls the “S&P 493.” This broad cohort, which constitutes the backbone of the U.S. economy across manufacturing, retail, financial services and health care, reveals a clear paradox: budgets flow generously into software upgrades, yet the outcomes show no expansion in profit margins compared with prior years, a finding reinforced by recent matching studies that have shown AI has so far failed to generate genuine productivity gains for non-tech firms.

The core dilemma in Apollo’s reading does not stem merely from companies’ slow adoption of tools, but from the gap between computing and enterprise management; Sahlow sees a severe difficulty in turning cheap software intelligence into revenue growth. AI may excel as an advanced calculator, butintelligence in the business world fundamentally rests on human judgment and estimationAlgorithms, however, lack a understanding of responsibility, trust, corporate culture, unwritten regulatory norms, as well as ethical balances and fairness, which are determinants that shape a company’s reputation and practically drive profit growth.

This diagnosis has direct implications for firms operating in the Middle East, particularly the major Gulf banks, telecom groups and holding companies in Egypt and the Levant. These entities are currently rushing to purchase smart-software licences on the premise that they will immediately cut operating costs and lift profit margins. However, the experience of U.S. companies shows that buying computing power alone does not confer a competitive edge unless there is human capability to harness it in credit decisions and supply-chain management, because turning AI into a cheap, commoditized product makes the real difference hinge on the precision of executive judgment and the strength of local trust networks.

These data put a swift end to the myths that have treated generative tools as a magical substitute for rigorous management fundamentals. The most pressing lesson for regional CEOs and technology leaders is that efficiency is not measured by the speed of text generation or report automation, but by the digital impact on financial statements, making real investment focused onhuman decision governanceand the development of complex trade-off skills, rather than piling up technology subscription costs that ultimately do not deliver measurable returns.