SoftBank returns to the Gulf again, but its $100 billion meets a cash exit wall

Masayoshi Son returns to the Gulf seeking a new $100 billion, but the financial landscape in autumn 2026 is completely different from that of 2017. When the first "Vision Fund" was launched, money from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and the UAE’s Mabarrat Investment flowed in to fuel a surge in venture capital, whereas today the founder of "SoftBank" faces a different investment reality governed by liquidity pressures and stalled cash exits.

According to the Financial Times, Son aims to create a fund that acquires listed companies and uses artificial intelligence and advanced technologies to bring about a fundamental shift in their operating processes. Yet reviving this idea at negotiation tables in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi comes as global bond yields rise and lenders reprice risk. The Japanese group is paying record yields on its high-risk bonds and has agreed to provide a unusual margin loan guarantee of $10 billion backed by its shares in "OpenAI", even though the loan is already secured by pledged assets, signaling that traditional financing channels have been exhausted and the balance sheet is under growing pressure.

Betting on AI valuations faces a real dilemma when funds fail to convert paper profits into tangible cash flows.

We examined the performance record underpinning the new round of negotiations, and the figures reveal a clear gap between paper gains and real liquidity. The first "Vision Fund", valued at $100 billion, recorded paper gains of $26.6 billion from its inception to the end of June, a modest return after nearly a decade of investment that saw the postponed IPO of "WeWork" in 2019 and the collapse of "Greensill" in 2021. Today, exit options from major firms appear blocked; "OpenAI", into which Son injected $65 billion, will not float its shares for an IPO this year, while the group’s "SP Energy", which is building the world’s largest data centre in Ohio, has delayed its public offering after investors rejected the required $50 billion valuation.

This stagnation in exit channels bolsters skeptics’ doubts about the sustainability of current valuations. While Michael Burry moved forward his gloomy market forecasts, billionaire Ray Dalio warned at the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore that everyone claims to hold billions of dollars on paper, but the test lies in the ability to spend them and liquidate assets without blowing a bubble. Any investment fundamentally rests on three factors: expected return, cost of capital, and the time needed to recover funds; these pillars are now converging to undermine the justification for unchecked expansion in AI financing.

The sovereign negotiator in the Gulf is no longer a funding source for experiments, but a party seeking to capture real assets at preferential prices.

What does this shift mean for financial decision-makers in the Gulf? Analyzing regional sovereign funds’ offers to "SoftBank" does not imply lax standards, but reflects the possibility of snapping up deals at attractive prices. The group has previously transferred existing assets to the first fund at their original value as part of its stake, and could repeat this if shares that would benefit from the first $35 billion injected into "OpenAI" are offered at appealing discounts. The rules of the game have changed; institutional capital in the region now holds the initiative to impose conditions that ensure liquidity and hedging, away from the rush toward paper figures that never reach the exchanges.