Artificial intelligence and Gulf policy restructuring threaten seven jobs out of every ten migrant workers
Economic estimates released by the International Migration Researchers in Lahore reveal a structural shift that threatens the foundations of the regional labour market, as artificial-intelligence applications and regulatory policy changes in the Gulf states place up to seven out of every ten jobs traditionally held by migrant workers directly at risk. The warning was issued during the fourth International Conference on Future Drivers of International Migration from Asia, organised by the Centre for Migration, Remittances and Diaspora Research at the Lahore School of Economics, with participation from policy researchers and specialists from Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka.
Dr. Nasser Iqbal, an academic at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, explains that 2026 reshaped the landscape of professional mobility across regional labour corridors dramatically, driven by an accelerating pace of geopolitical conflicts and the rapid rise of AI and automation systems. This technological-regulatory intersection has altered Gulf states’ view of migrant labour, shifting operational weight toward a precise selection of personnel based on specific skills, specialised professions and documented migration pathways.This transformation pushes labour-exporting countries to move from being mere human-export channels to becoming operational partners in pre-screening and up-skilling talent.At the same time, the numbers warn that current remittance flows may conceal an inevitable decline in traditional overseas employment opportunities.
Franzwaes Du Belle Air, a researcher in the Gulf Labour, Migration and Population Markets programme, confirms that employment markets are experiencing a sharp pull, with opportunities expanding for highly-skilled professionals in North America, Europe and the Gulf, while traditional pathways for low- and medium-skill workers face rising regulatory constraints and a gradual closure of the outlets that have absorbed millions of migrants for decades. Nevertheless, labour-migration expert between Asia and the Middle East, Frouilan Malit, notes that the migration corridor linking Asia and the Gulf remains the most flexible and resilient system in the Global South, calling for an in-depth study of skill-recognition regimes and their formal inclusion in external-policy frameworks that govern workforce flows.
The working-paper contributions reflect the deep link between source-country economies and this corridor, as Dr. Richa Shivekoti shows that Nepal relies on external remittances to finance about 33 percent of its gross domestic product, while confronting unemployment and climate impacts. In the Philippines, Dr. Maruja Asis points out that a shortage of decent local jobs fuels labour outflows, intersecting with digital transformation and ageing societies, at a time when Pakistani case studies highlight a contrast between the continued flow of traditional workers to the Gulf Cooperation Council states and the growing migration of skilled talent to the West, amid clear skill gaps relative to new market demands.
The new operational reality means that business leaders and hiring managers in the Gulf, Egypt and the wider region are approaching the mandatory end of reliance on low-cost labour intensity.This benefits the automation of routine, service and administrative roles through software agents and AI solutions. For a firm in Riyadh or Dubai, the shift translates into a restructuring of set-up and operating costs, where the advantage no longer lies in headcount but in the ability to integrate intelligent systems, prompting the creation of new assessment standards for the technical skills of migrants. As an executive or technical officer, you must recognise that investing in advanced automation tools has become an alternative to traditional recruitment channels, reshaping salary structures and required skills across logistics and operational sectors throughout the region.