World Bank report: UAE and Jordan lead jobs vulnerable to AI replacement, and the Gulf tops tool usage
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The jobs most vulnerable to AI replacement are not in the least prepared economies, but in those that have built growth on knowledge occupations, which places the UAE and Jordan at the forefront of MENA countries, according to the World Bank's economic update for October 2026 on the MENAP region. The risk does not exceed 10% of total jobs regionally, but a more detailed picture shows that 13 to 20% of jobs have potential to boost productivity with AI, with the bank warning that these potentials are far from guaranteed.
Higher exposure where jobs are knowledge-based
The report shows that high-income economies face the greatest exposure because a larger share of their workforce is concentrated in knowledge occupations, which generative AI handles well. The UAE leads the region in a “professional AI usage footprint”: it exceeds the average in 9 of 22 occupational groups, ranging from programming to management, sales, arts and media, cooking, and personal care. The bank links this spread to the national AI strategy launched in 2017, which targeted hospitality, retail, logistics, and technology together.
Value of work performed by tools: the Gulf approaches Germany and the UK
When measuring the value of work performed or assisted by AI tools as a share of GDP, Gulf countries lead, and the UAE’s share approaches that of Germany and the United Kingdom. The estimate is based on a sample of one million conversations on the “Cloud” platform published by Anthropic, with the bank noting that these users may be more educated and knowledge-focused than the general population, which could overstate the gains.
2031 strategy: diversification with AI
AI has become central to diversifying the UAE economy and its long-term competitiveness. The 2031 national AI strategy directs the deployment of the technology in government services, health care, energy, logistics, and finance to improve efficiency and decision-making. The UAE jumped from rank 32 in 2017 to rank 8 in 2024 in the Stanford Global AI Index, and enrollment in generative AI courses on Coursera grew by 344% year-on-year. However, women account for only a fifth to a quarter of registrants in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt, a gap that policy on talent development must address.
The other side: escaping replaceable skills
Since the launch of ChatGPT, the value of jobs in the most replaceable AI skills has fallen by 9.8%, and the number of new entrants to those skills has dropped by 12.1%, compared with the least exposed skills. AI talent is concentrated in Gulf countries, while middle-income economies experience talent outflows, and reliable electricity and broadband remain absent in some economies. Only 16% of companies in the region launched a new product or service in the past three years, versus 29% in other emerging markets.
What this means for your career path in the region
The message is not that jobs will disappear tomorrow, 10% is the upper bound for replacement and 20% for productivity gains, but that the shift is happening within occupations rather than across them. Those working in management, sales, media, or personal care in the UAE already see AI tools entering their workday. The practical question is whether you are building integrative skills (using the tool to accomplish what you cannot do alone) or staying in tasks that replicate what models already perform with reduced time and cost. Gulf countries invest in infrastructure and high-performance computing (the UAE and Saudi Arabia alone rank among the top 25 globally in model development and computing combined), and opportunities concentrate where infrastructure and talent converge. Your next decision, whether to learn a new skill, pivot your role, or choose a job market, is determined by your position in this transition, not by your current job title.